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Górnik Polkowice vs SKRA Częstochowa — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
K. Strzelecki 89'
J. Wirenski 86'
S. Skrzypczak 52'
S. Kwapisz 13'
I. Metlushko 2'
9/19/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 9Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice43%
×Draw23%
SKRA Częstochowa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.74
SKRA Częstochowa
1.51

Górnik Polkowice creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
SKRA Częstochowa
1.76

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
SKRA Częstochowa
1.76

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
66%
Górnik Polkowice or SKRA Częstochowa
77%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
57%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
23%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
82%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
25%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
78%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
44%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
56%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.76 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
43%
level
23%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
34%

Górnik Polkowice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
I. Metlushko
13'
S. Kwapisz
52'
S. Skrzypczak
82'
L. Jozefczyk
82'
L. Jozefczyk
86'
J. Wirenski
89'
K. Strzelecki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Polkowice 4–1 SKRA Częstochowa

Górnik Polkowice beat SKRA Częstochowa 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 19, 2025.

Goals: I. Metlushko (2'), S. Kwapisz (13'), S. Skrzypczak (52'), J. Wirenski (86'), K. Strzelecki (89').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.