SKRA Częstochowa 1–3 Górnik Polkowice

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

R. Brusiło 72'

E. Sobków 60'

M. Piątkowski 47', 39'

11/7/2020

II Liga - East · Round 12Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa40%

×Draw27%

Górnik Polkowice33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

SKRA Częstochowa

1.33

Górnik Polkowice

1.17

SKRA Częstochowa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

1.40

0.95

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.37

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.95

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

67%

SKRA Częstochowa or Górnik Polkowice

73%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

60%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

18%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

74%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

38%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

15%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

69%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

33%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

55%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

40%

level

27%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

33%

SKRA Częstochowa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Holik

25'

K. Fryzowicz

35'

A. Borkowski← E. Terpiłowski

39'

M. Piątkowski

46'

R. Gołębiowski← D. Pietraszkiewicz

47'

M. Piątkowski

52'

K. Waclawczyk

55'

M. Kazimierowicz← K. Noiszewski

56'

M. Piatkowski

58'

K. Napora

60'

E. Sobków

63'

L. Zieliński← D. Niedbała

69'

J. Sinior← P. Nocoń

69'

S. Rogala← M. Holik

69'

B. Żołądź← K. Wacławczyk

72'

R. Brusiło

81'

S. Rogala

82'

D. Radziemski← M. Baszak

83'

M. Opałacz← M. Piątkowski

85'

Szymanski

SKRA

Górnik

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Rokosa

46'▲R. Gołębiowski←▼D. Pietraszkiewicz

55'▲M. Kazimierowicz←▼K. Noiszewski

63'▲L. Zieliński←▼D. Niedbała

69'▲J. Sinior←▼P. Nocoń

69'▲S. Rogala←▼M. Holik

SKRA Częstochowa substitutes

GołębiowskiKazimierowiczZielińskiSiniorRogala

Manager: J. Niedźwiedź

35'▲A. Borkowski←▼E. Terpiłowski

69'▲B. Żołądź←▼K. Wacławczyk

82'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Baszak

83'▲M. Opałacz←▼M. Piątkowski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

BorkowskiŻołądźRadziemskiOpałacz

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat SKRA Częstochowa 3-1 in II Liga - East on November 7, 2020.

Goals: M. Piątkowski (39', 47'), E. Sobków (60'), R. Brusiło (72').

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.

SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Polkowice