Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skövde AIK vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
M. Moro 29'
A. Aliev 90+2' (pen)
A. Wiberg 62'
5/26/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Skövde AIK30%
×Draw24%
Osters IF46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.28
Osters IF
1.64

Osters IF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.26
Osters IF
1.64

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.64
Osters IF
1.30

finishing

Skövde AIK-0.59scores less
Osters IF-1.04scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
54%
Skövde AIK or Osters IF
76%
Draw or Osters IF
70%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
13%
Osters IF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
72%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
37%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
14%
Osters IF 1+ goals
81%
Osters IF 2+ goals
49%
Osters IF 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
40%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.26 + Osters IF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Osters IF attack 1.64 + Skövde AIK defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
30%
level
24%
Osters IF scores more
46%

Osters IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
T. VarmanenOsters IFOsters IF · D
7.7

Match Events

24'
Mamudo Moro
29'
M. Moro
40'
T. Varmanen← Þ. Þórisson
45+3'
Mattis Adolfsson
46'
A. Mörfelt← N. Söderberg
51'
E. Skillermo← S. Ljubicic
55'
Filip Schyberg
60'
Manasse Kusu
62'
A. Wiberg
66'
Hugo Engstrom
72'
G. Broman← F. Drinic
72'
A. Suljev← M. Mikhail
74'
Filip Schyberg
74'
Filip Schyberg
87'
D. Ljung← A. Herdonsson
89'
E. Lindell← M. Moro
90+4'
S. Hedlund← V. Rodić
90+2'
A. AlievPenalty

Possession

33%Skövde

Shots

9Skövde

Pass accuracy

45%Skövde

Statistics

SkövdeOsters
Overview
33%Possession67%
9Total Shots18
1.09Expected Goals (xG)2.83
7Corners6
19Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots18
4On Target5
2Off Target7
3Blocked6
7Inside Box12
2Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
171Total Passes442
125Accurate Passes391
73%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Superettan: Skövde AIK 1–2 Osters IF

Osters IF beat Skövde AIK 2-1 in Superettan on May 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Moro (29'), A. Wiberg (62'), A. Aliev (90+2' pen).

Osters IF controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.