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Skövde AIK vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
8/9/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 18Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Skövde AIK41%
×Draw26%
Osters IF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.37
Osters IF
1.20

Skövde AIK creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 100 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.36
Osters IF
1.30

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.09
Osters IF
1.37

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
67%
Skövde AIK or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
59%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
19%
Osters IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
75%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
40%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
16%
Osters IF 1+ goals
70%
Osters IF 2+ goals
34%
Osters IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
55%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.37 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.36 + Osters IF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Osters IF attack 1.30 + Skövde AIK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
41%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
33%

Skövde AIK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Aldin Basic
33'
Jesper Jonasson Westermark
34'
Elias Lindell
71'
H. Engström← Y. Fellrath
79'
Tatu Varmanen
79'
Alex Þór Hauksson
86'
M. Sørensen← V. Rodić
88'
Tatu Varmanen
88'
Tatu Varmanen
89'
John Stenberg
89'
M. Adolfsson← D. Kozica

Shots

9Skövde

Statistics

SkövdeOsters
Overview
9Total Shots2
5Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots2
3Off Target1
3Blocked1
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Skövde AIK vs Osters IF

Skövde AIK and Osters IF drew 0-0 in Superettan on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.