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Osters IF vs Skövde AIK — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
5 – 2
HT: 5 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
A. Aliev 45+1', 22'
K. Höög Jansson 27'
D. Seger 6', 4'
H. Engström 90+3'
M. Mikhail 80'
11/3/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Osters IF55%
×Draw23%
Skövde AIK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.84
Skövde AIK
1.09

Osters IF creates 69% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 47 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.68
Skövde AIK
1.11

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
Skövde AIK
2.00

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
78%
Osters IF or Skövde AIK
77%
Draw or Skövde AIK
45%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
31%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
84%
Osters IF 2+ goals
55%
Osters IF 3+ goals
28%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
66%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
30%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
71%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.68 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Osters IF scores more
55%
level
23%
Skövde AIK scores more
22%

Osters IF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. SegerOsters IFOsters IF · M
10.0

Match Events

4'
D. Seger
6'
D. Seger
22'
A. Aliev
27'
K. Höög Jansson
45+1'
A. Aliev
46'
R. Adjei← T. Varmanen
46'
M. Andersen← A. Aliev
52'
T. Johansson← L. Bergquist
56'
Ž. Ovsenek← Elmar Abraham
56'
F. Hellichius← A. Demirol
60'
A. Mörfelt← N. Söderberg
67'
E. Skillermo← A. Suljev
71'
H. Pijaca← K. Höög Jansson
80'
M. Mikhail
90'
E. Ström← F. Drinic
90+3'
H. Engström

Possession

56%Osters

Shots

29Osters

Pass accuracy

52%Osters

Statistics

OstersSkövde
Overview
56%Possession44%
29Total Shots16
5.28Expected Goals (xG)1.44
4Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
29Total Shots16
10On Target4
8Off Target9
8Blocked3
18Inside Box10
11Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
571Total Passes362
493Accurate Passes284
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls12
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Osters IF vs Skövde AIK

Osters IF beat Skövde AIK 5-2 in Superettan on November 3, 2024.

Goals: D. Seger (4', 6'), A. Aliev (22', 45+1'), K. Höög Jansson (27'), M. Mikhail (80'), H. Engström (90+3').

Osters IF controlled possession (56%) and registered 29 shots to 16.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.