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Skövde AIK vs Oddevold — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
CANC
12:00
Oddevold
Oddevold
2/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Skövde AIK47%
×Draw20%
Oddevold33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
2.40
Oddevold
2.00

Skövde AIK creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
3.60
Oddevold
1.80

allows per match

Skövde AIK
2.20
Oddevold
1.20

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Oddevold+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Oddevold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
67%
Skövde AIK or Oddevold
80%
Draw or Oddevold
53%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
28%
Oddevold wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
91%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
69%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
42%
Oddevold 1+ goals
86%
Oddevold 2+ goals
59%
Oddevold 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
59%
Oddevold (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 3.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Oddevold away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 3.60 + Oddevold defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.40

Oddevold attack 1.80 + Skövde AIK defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
47%
level
20%
Oddevold scores more
33%

Skövde AIK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Skövde AIK host Oddevold

February 16, 2024: Skövde AIK take on Oddevold in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.