Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oddevold vs Skövde AIK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Oddevold
Oddevold
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
10/27/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 29Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oddevold54%
×Draw24%
Skövde AIK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oddevold
1.76
Skövde AIK
1.06

Oddevold creates 66% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

creates per match

Oddevold
1.78
Skövde AIK
1.25

allows per match

Oddevold
0.87
Skövde AIK
1.74

finishing

Oddevold+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oddevold ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oddevold or draw
77%
Oddevold or Skövde AIK
76%
Draw or Skövde AIK
46%

Winning margin

Oddevold wins by 2+
30%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oddevold 1+ goals
83%
Oddevold 2+ goals
52%
Oddevold 3+ goals
26%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
65%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
29%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oddevold (draw refunded)
70%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oddevold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.74 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oddevold attack 1.78 + Skövde AIK defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.76

Skövde AIK attack 1.25 + Oddevold defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oddevold scores more
54%
level
24%
Skövde AIK scores more
23%

Oddevold at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oddevold vs Skövde AIK

Skövde AIK beat Oddevold 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Rimnersvallen in Uddevalla.