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Skövde AIK vs Oddevold — Ettan - Södra 2019

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oddevold
Oddevold
4/27/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 4Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Skövde AIK41%
×Draw26%
Oddevold34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.43
Oddevold
1.28

Skövde AIK creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.85
Oddevold
1.38

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.18
Oddevold
1.00

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Oddevold+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Oddevold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
66%
Skövde AIK or Oddevold
74%
Draw or Oddevold
59%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
19%
Oddevold wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
76%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
42%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
17%
Oddevold 1+ goals
72%
Oddevold 2+ goals
37%
Oddevold 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
55%
Oddevold (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Oddevold away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.85 + Oddevold defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Oddevold attack 1.38 + Skövde AIK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
41%
level
26%
Oddevold scores more
34%

Skövde AIK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Skövde AIK 2–0 Oddevold

Skövde AIK beat Oddevold 2-0 in Ettan - Södra on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.