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Skövde AIK vs Mjallby AIF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
8/27/2017Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 16Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Skövde AIK37%
×Draw23%
Mjallby AIF40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.66
Mjallby AIF
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 4 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.82
Mjallby AIF
2.25

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.19
Mjallby AIF
1.50

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
60%
Skövde AIK or Mjallby AIF
77%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
63%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
19%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
81%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
49%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
23%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
82%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
51%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
48%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.82 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mjallby AIF attack 2.25 + Skövde AIK defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
37%
level
23%
Mjallby AIF scores more
40%

Mjallby AIF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skövde AIK vs Mjallby AIF

Skövde AIK beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 in Ettan - Södra on August 27, 2017.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.