Skövde AIK 1–3 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Skövde AIK

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Mjallby AIF

William Granath 72'

P. Kasim 35', 13'

B. Jobe 24'

8/18/2018

Ettan - Södra · Round 18Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Skövde AIK33%

×Draw21%

Mjallby AIF46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skövde AIKExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.09

Skövde AIK

1.76

Mjallby AIF

2.09

Mjallby AIF creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 3 away

1.85

creates per match

3.00

1.19

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Skövde AIK

1.85

Mjallby AIF

3.00

allows per match

Skövde AIK

1.19

Mjallby AIF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw

54%

Skövde AIK or Mjallby AIF

79%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

67%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

17%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

83%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

52%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

26%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

88%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

62%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

42%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.85 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Mjallby AIF attack 3.00 + Skövde AIK defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Skövde AIK scores more

33%

level

21%

Mjallby AIF scores more

46%

Mjallby AIF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

P. Kasim

24'

B. Jobe

35'

P. Kasim

45'

Viktor Granat← E. Abraham

64'

J. Gustavsson← B. Jobe

69'

J. Nilsson← J. Bergström

72'

S. Sörman← G. Norlin

72'

William Granath

78'

J. Ottosson← P. Kasim

90+1'

G. Gerxhaliu← B. Yonakhir

Skövde

Mjallby

⚽2

▼

Kasim

Birgersso

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: C. Abraham

45'▲Viktor Granat←▼E. Abraham

72'▲S. Sörman←▼G. Norlin

90+1'▲G. Gerxhaliu←▼B. Yonakhir

Skövde AIK substitutes

GranatSörmanGerxhaliuGerhardssonLund-BorgRingAndersson

Manager: J. Andersson

64'▲J. Gustavsson←▼B. Jobe

69'▲J. Nilsson←▼J. Bergström

78'▲J. Ottosson←▼P. Kasim

Mjallby AIF substitutes

GustavssonNilssonOttossonNorénRundqvistDimitrijevicSilverholt

Ettan - Södra: Skövde AIK 1–3 Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Skövde AIK 3-1 in Ettan - Södra on August 18, 2018.

Goals: P. Kasim (13', 35'), B. Jobe (24'), William Granath (72').

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.

Skövde AIK vs Mjallby AIF — Ettan - Södra 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Skövde AIK 1–3 Mjallby AIF