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Mjallby AIF vs Skövde AIK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
4/15/2018Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 2Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mjallby AIF64%
×Draw20%
Skövde AIK16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
2.16
Skövde AIK
0.98

Mjallby AIF creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
2.50
Skövde AIK
1.21

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.75
Skövde AIK
1.82

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
84%
Mjallby AIF or Skövde AIK
80%
Draw or Skövde AIK
36%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
40%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
88%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
63%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
36%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
62%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
26%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
80%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.82 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.50 + Skövde AIK defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.16

Skövde AIK attack 1.21 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
64%
level
20%
Skövde AIK scores more
16%

Mjallby AIF at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Mjallby AIF 4–1 Skövde AIK

Mjallby AIF beat Skövde AIK 4-1 in Ettan - Södra on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.