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Skövde AIK vs Husqvarna — Ettan - Södra 2019

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Husqvarna
Husqvarna
5/28/2025Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 10Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Skövde AIK59%
×Draw20%
Husqvarna21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
2.23
Husqvarna
1.25

Skövde AIK creates 78% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.85
Husqvarna
1.33

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.18
Husqvarna
2.60

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Husqvarna+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Husqvarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
79%
Skövde AIK or Husqvarna
80%
Draw or Husqvarna
41%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
37%
Husqvarna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
89%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
65%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
38%
Husqvarna 1+ goals
71%
Husqvarna 2+ goals
36%
Husqvarna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
74%
Husqvarna (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Husqvarna away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.85 + Husqvarna defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Husqvarna attack 1.33 + Skövde AIK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
59%
level
20%
Husqvarna scores more
21%

Skövde AIK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skövde AIK vs Husqvarna

Skövde AIK and Husqvarna drew 3-3 in Ettan - Södra on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.