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Husqvarna vs Skövde AIK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Husqvarna
Husqvarna
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
8/9/2025Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 17Vapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Husqvarna52%
×Draw23%
Skövde AIK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Husqvarna
1.77
Skövde AIK
1.16

Husqvarna creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

creates per match

Husqvarna
1.80
Skövde AIK
1.25

allows per match

Husqvarna
1.07
Skövde AIK
1.74

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw
75%
Husqvarna or Skövde AIK
77%
Draw or Skövde AIK
48%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+
28%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals
83%
Husqvarna 2+ goals
53%
Husqvarna 3+ goals
26%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
69%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
32%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)
67%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.74 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 1.80 + Skövde AIK defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Skövde AIK attack 1.25 + Husqvarna defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Husqvarna scores more
52%
level
23%
Skövde AIK scores more
25%

Husqvarna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Husqvarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Husqvarna vs Skövde AIK

Husqvarna beat Skövde AIK 4-1 in Ettan - Södra on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Vapenvallen in Huskvarna.