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Husqvarna vs Skövde AIK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Husqvarna
Husqvarna
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
6/30/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundVapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Husqvarna21%
×Draw21%
Skövde AIK59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Husqvarna
1.19
Skövde AIK
2.14

Skövde AIK creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Husqvarna
0.83
Skövde AIK
1.45

allows per match

Husqvarna
2.83
Skövde AIK
1.55

finishing

Husqvarna+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Husqvarna ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Husqvarna or draw
41%
Husqvarna or Skövde AIK
79%
Draw or Skövde AIK
79%

Winning margin

Husqvarna wins by 2+
8%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Husqvarna 1+ goals
70%
Husqvarna 2+ goals
33%
Husqvarna 3+ goals
12%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
88%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
63%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Husqvarna (draw refunded)
26%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Husqvarna at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Husqvarna attack 0.83 + Skövde AIK defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Skövde AIK attack 1.45 + Husqvarna defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Husqvarna scores more
21%
level
21%
Skövde AIK scores more
59%

Skövde AIK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Husqvarna 1–1 Skövde AIK

Husqvarna and Skövde AIK drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Vapenvallen in Huskvarna.