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Skedsmo vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Skedsmo
Skedsmo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
E. Risberget 8'
K. Coric 56' (pen)
K. Bjorndalen 12'
5/20/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 7Skedsmo stadion kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skedsmo64%
×Draw20%
Gjelleråsen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skedsmo
2.21
Gjelleråsen
1.04

Skedsmo creates 113% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skedsmo
1.74
Gjelleråsen
0.92

allows per match

Skedsmo
1.16
Gjelleråsen
2.69

finishing

Skedsmo+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skedsmo ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Skedsmo or draw
83%
Skedsmo or Gjelleråsen
80%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
36%

Winning margin

Skedsmo wins by 2+
40%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Skedsmo 1+ goals
89%
Skedsmo 2+ goals
65%
Skedsmo 3+ goals
38%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
65%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
28%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Skedsmo (draw refunded)
79%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skedsmo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skedsmo attack 1.74 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gjelleråsen attack 0.92 + Skedsmo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Skedsmo scores more
64%
level
20%
Gjelleråsen scores more
17%

Skedsmo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Skedsmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
E. Risberget
12'
K. Bjorndalen
56'
K. CoricPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skedsmo vs Gjelleråsen

Gjelleråsen beat Skedsmo 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Risberget (8'), K. Bjorndalen (12'), K. Coric (56' pen).

The match was played at Skedsmo stadion kunstgress in Skedsmokorset.