Skedsmo 2–1 Gjelleråsen: Result & Stats

Skedsmo

FT

2 – 1

Gjelleråsen

4/15/2023

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 2Skedsmo stadion kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skedsmo43%

×Draw21%

Gjelleråsen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkedsmoExpected goals in this matchGjelleråsen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.79

Skedsmo

1.99

Gjelleråsen

1.79

Skedsmo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

2.23

creates per match

2.20

1.38

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Skedsmo

2.23

Gjelleråsen

2.20

allows per match

Skedsmo

1.38

Gjelleråsen

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skedsmo+0.00on par

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skedsmo ↓

Gjelleråsen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Skedsmo or draw

65%

Skedsmo or Gjelleråsen

79%

Draw or Gjelleråsen

57%

Winning margin

Skedsmo wins by 2+

24%

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Skedsmo 1+ goals

86%

Skedsmo 2+ goals

59%

Skedsmo 3+ goals

32%

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

83%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

53%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Skedsmo (draw refunded)

55%

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skedsmo at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skedsmo attack 2.23 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.99

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Skedsmo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skedsmo scores more

43%

level

21%

Gjelleråsen scores more

35%

Skedsmo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skedsmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff