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Gjelleråsen vs Skedsmo — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Skedsmo
Skedsmo
7/27/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 14Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen40%
×Draw21%
Skedsmo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
2.00
Skedsmo
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.00
Skedsmo
1.32

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
2.62
Skedsmo
2.00

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Skedsmo+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Skedsmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
61%
Gjelleråsen or Skedsmo
79%
Draw or Skedsmo
60%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
22%
Skedsmo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
86%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
59%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
32%
Skedsmo 1+ goals
86%
Skedsmo 2+ goals
58%
Skedsmo 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
51%
Skedsmo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Skedsmo away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.00 + Skedsmo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Skedsmo attack 1.32 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
40%
level
21%
Skedsmo scores more
39%

Gjelleråsen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Gjelleråsen 2–2 Skedsmo

Gjelleråsen and Skedsmo drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.