Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skála vs NSI Runavik — Meistaradeildin 2019

Skála
Skála
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
NSI Runavik
NSI Runavik
4/26/2026MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Skála28%
×Draw22%
NSI Runavik51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skála
1.45
NSI Runavik
2.02

NSI Runavik creates 39% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 89 away

creates per match

Skála
1.25
NSI Runavik
2.21

allows per match

Skála
1.84
NSI Runavik
1.65

finishing

Skála+0.00on par
NSI Runavik+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skála ↓

NSI Runavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Skála or draw
49%
Skála or NSI Runavik
78%
Draw or NSI Runavik
72%

Winning margin

Skála wins by 2+
12%
NSI Runavik wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Skála 1+ goals
77%
Skála 2+ goals
42%
Skála 3+ goals
18%
NSI Runavik 1+ goals
87%
NSI Runavik 2+ goals
60%
NSI Runavik 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Skála (draw refunded)
35%
NSI Runavik (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skála at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.84 · 64 matches

NSI Runavik away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skála attack 1.25 + NSI Runavik defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

NSI Runavik attack 2.21 + Skála defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Skála scores more
28%
level
22%
NSI Runavik scores more
51%

NSI Runavik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: Skála 3–3 NSI Runavik

Skála and NSI Runavik drew 3-3 in Meistaradeildin on April 26, 2026.