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NSI Runavik vs Skála — 1. Deild 2019

NSI Runavik
NSI Runavik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Skála
Skála
10/27/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 27við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

NSI Runavik32%
×Draw23%
Skála45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NSI Runavik
1.48
Skála
1.78

Skála creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

NSI Runavik
2.15
Skála
2.88

allows per match

NSI Runavik
0.69
Skála
0.82

finishing

NSI Runavik+0.00on par
Skála+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSI Runavik ↓

Skála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NSI Runavik or draw
55%
NSI Runavik or Skála
77%
Draw or Skála
68%

Winning margin

NSI Runavik wins by 2+
15%
Skála wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

NSI Runavik 1+ goals
77%
NSI Runavik 2+ goals
43%
NSI Runavik 3+ goals
19%
Skála 1+ goals
83%
Skála 2+ goals
53%
Skála 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)
42%
Skála (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSI Runavik at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Skála away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSI Runavik attack 2.15 + Skála defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Skála attack 2.88 + NSI Runavik defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NSI Runavik scores more
32%
level
23%
Skála scores more
45%

Skála at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Skála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NSI Runavik vs Skála

Skála beat NSI Runavik 2-0 in 1. Deild on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at við Løkin in Runavík, Eysturoy.