NSI Runavik 3–1 Skála: Result & Stats

NSI Runavik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Skála

3/16/2024

Meistaradeildin · Round 2við Løkin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

NSI Runavik64%

×Draw20%

Skála16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NSI RunavikExpected goals in this matchSkála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.97

NSI Runavik

2.17

Skála

0.97

NSI Runavik creates 124% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

2.10

creates per match

0.78

1.16

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

NSI Runavik

2.10

Skála

0.78

allows per match

NSI Runavik

1.16

Skála

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NSI Runavik+0.00on par

Skála+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NSI Runavik ↓

Skála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

NSI Runavik or draw

84%

NSI Runavik or Skála

80%

Draw or Skála

36%

Winning margin

NSI Runavik wins by 2+

41%

Skála wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

NSI Runavik 1+ goals

89%

NSI Runavik 2+ goals

64%

NSI Runavik 3+ goals

36%

Skála 1+ goals

62%

Skála 2+ goals

25%

Skála 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)

80%

Skála (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NSI Runavik at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

Skála away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NSI Runavik attack 2.10 + Skála defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Skála attack 0.78 + NSI Runavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

NSI Runavik scores more

64%

level

20%

Skála scores more

16%

NSI Runavik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff