Ska-khabarovsk 0–0 Chertanovo Moscow

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

8/10/2019

First League · Round 7Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk48%

×Draw26%

Chertanovo Moscow26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Ska-khabarovsk

1.48

Chertanovo Moscow

1.00

Ska-khabarovsk creates 48% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 53 away

1.42

creates per match

1.21

0.80

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.42

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.80

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

74%

Ska-khabarovsk or Chertanovo Moscow

74%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

52%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

24%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

77%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

43%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

19%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

63%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

26%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

65%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 139 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.42 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

48%

level

26%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

26%

Ska-khabarovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

R. Gadzhimuradov

36'

I. Kvekveskiri

41'

A. Katsaev

45'

E. Rudkovski

46'

A. Maleev

55'

Y. Gorshkov

65'

L. Gerchikov← E. Rudkovskiy

69'

V. Bragin← A. Maleev

73'

X. Asani← V. Nikiforov

74'

E. Kondakov← I. Kamyshev

83'

A. Maksimenko← A. Katsaev

87'

D. Tyumentsev← N. Prudnikov

88'

Y. Zavezen← R. Ezhov

Ska-khabarovsk

Chertanovo

81

Abaev

6

Soldatenk

4

Redkovich

10

▼

Rudkovski

11

▼

Ezhov

5

▼

8

23

25

9

17

▼

96

55

15

22

10

▼

Nikiforov

7

▼

Katsaev

33

Kvekveski

8

▼

21

70

11

Manager: A. Poddubsky

69'▲V. Bragin←▼A. Maleev

73'▲X. Asani←▼V. Nikiforov

83'▲A. Maksimenko←▼A. Katsaev

Ska-khabarovsk substitutes

19Bragin23Asani9Maksimenko1Soromytko5Elmurzaev90Matviychuk93Cruz97Trufanov

Manager: I. Osinkin

65'▲L. Gerchikov←▼E. Rudkovskiy

74'▲E. Kondakov←▼I. Kamyshev

87'▲D. Tyumentsev←▼N. Prudnikov

88'▲Y. Zavezen←▼R. Ezhov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

68Gerchikov3Kondakov7Tyumentsev31Zavezen1Lomaev44Mikhaylov

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 0–0 Chertanovo Moscow

Ska-khabarovsk and Chertanovo Moscow drew 0-0 in First League on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 0–0 Chertanovo Moscow