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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
I. Khomukha 6'
K. Kolesnichenko 70', 33'
R. Ezhov 26'
3/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk48%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.48
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 48% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.42
Chertanovo Moscow
1.21

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.80
Chertanovo Moscow
1.55

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
74%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
52%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
24%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
77%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
43%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
19%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
63%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
26%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
65%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 139 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.42 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
48%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
26%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Maksim Vityugov
6'
I. Khomukha
10'
Nikolay Prudnikov
18'
Oleg Igorevich Aleinik
26'
R. Ezhov
33'
K. Kolesnichenko
50'
Vitaliy Pryndeta
60'
Vladimir Bartasevich
62'
Roman Ezhov
70'
K. Kolesnichenko
85'
Aleksandr Radchenko
86'
Dmitri Tsypchenko
90'
Vladimirs Kamess

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-Khabarovsk vs Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Ska-Khabarovsk 3-1 in First League on March 3, 2019.

Goals: I. Khomukha (6'), R. Ezhov (26'), K. Kolesnichenko (33', 70').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).