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Chertanovo Moscow vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2026

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
4/17/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 37Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow42%
×Draw26%
Ska-khabarovsk32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.41
Ska-khabarovsk
1.19

Chertanovo Moscow creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 142 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.36
Ska-khabarovsk
1.07

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.30
Ska-khabarovsk
1.46

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
68%
Chertanovo Moscow or Ska-khabarovsk
74%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
58%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
20%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
76%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
41%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
17%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
70%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
33%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
57%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
42%
level
26%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
32%

Chertanovo Moscow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chertanovo Moscow 0–4 Ska-khabarovsk

Ska-khabarovsk beat Chertanovo Moscow 4-0 in First League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Moscow.