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Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Sivasspor
Sivasspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
4/13/2025League #203League #203 · Round 31BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sivasspor22%
×Draw22%
Fenerbahçe56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sivasspor
1.13
Fenerbahçe
1.94

Fenerbahçe creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sivasspor
1.40
Fenerbahçe
2.68

allows per match

Sivasspor
1.20
Fenerbahçe
0.86

finishing

Sivasspor+0.00on par
Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sivasspor ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sivasspor or draw
44%
Sivasspor or Fenerbahçe
78%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
78%

Winning margin

Sivasspor wins by 2+
8%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Sivasspor 1+ goals
68%
Sivasspor 2+ goals
31%
Sivasspor 3+ goals
11%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
86%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
58%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sivasspor (draw refunded)
28%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sivasspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.68, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sivasspor attack 1.40 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Fenerbahçe attack 2.68 + Sivasspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sivasspor scores more
22%
level
22%
Fenerbahçe scores more
56%

Fenerbahçe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sivasspor vs Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Sivasspor 3-1 in League #203 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Sivas.