Fenerbahçe 3–0 Sivasspor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sivasspor

J. King 85'

M. Batshuayi 58'

F. Kadıoğlu 47'

5/24/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fenerbahçe43%

×Draw24%

Sivasspor34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.46

Fenerbahçe

1.67

Sivasspor

1.46

Fenerbahçe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

2.27

0.65

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.25

Sivasspor

2.27

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.65

Sivasspor

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

66%

Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor

76%

Draw or Sivasspor

57%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

22%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

81%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

50%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

23%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

77%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

43%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

56%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Sivasspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sivasspor attack 2.27 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

43%

level

24%

Sivasspor scores more

34%

Fenerbahçe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

-5'

38'

47'

58'

M. Batshuayi↳ E. Valencia

64'

H. Arslan← C. Charisis

64'

C. N'Jie← Samuel Sáiz

75'

D. Rossi← İ. Kahveci

75'

J. King← E. Valencia

77'

A. Okumuş← R. Yalçın

77'

M. Yatabaré← I. Cofie

85'

J. King↳ M. Batshuayi

90'

M. Yandaş← M. Zajc

90'

J. Oosterwolde← M. Batshuayi

90+4'

İ. Yüksek← Willian Arão

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FenerbahçeSivasspor

Overview

67%Possession33%

24Total Shots10

7Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots10

6On Target3

9Off Target5

9Blocked2

Passing

67%Possession33%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2