Fenerbahçe 4–0 Sivasspor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sivasspor

A. Saint-Maximin 90+4'

S. Amrabat 82'

D. Tadić 54' (pen)

S. Akaydin 24'

11/10/2024

League #203 · Round 12Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fenerbahçe68%

×Draw18%

Sivasspor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.02

Fenerbahçe

2.44

Sivasspor

1.02

Fenerbahçe creates 139% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

2.73

creates per match

0.86

1.18

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.73

Sivasspor

0.86

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

1.18

Sivasspor

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

86%

Fenerbahçe or Sivasspor

82%

Draw or Sivasspor

32%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

46%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

91%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

70%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

43%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

64%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

27%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

83%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.73 + Sivasspor defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.44

Sivasspor attack 0.86 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

68%

level

18%

Sivasspor scores more

14%

Fenerbahçe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

97

A. Saint-Maximin

Fenerbahçe · M

9.2

Match Events

9'

Bengali-Fodé Koita

12'

A. Djiku← Ç. Söyüncü

15'

Keita Baldé

24'

S. Akaydin↳ M. Yandaş

26'

Samet AkaydınGoal confirmed

43'

Charis Charisis

52'

Youssef En-NesyriPenalty confirmed

53'

Đorđe Nikolić

54'

D. TadićPenalty

59'

Achilleas Poungouras

62'

E. Başyiğit← A. Turgunboev

62'

Q. Menig← K. Baldé

71'

E. Džeko← Y. En-Nesyri

71'

Fred← M. Yandaş

78'

E. Başsan← Garry Rodrigues

78'

J. Biegański← A. Poungouras

80'

82'

84'

88'

88'

Rodrigo Becão← A. Djiku

90'

Y. Cin← S. Moutoussamy

90+4'

A. Saint-Maximin↳ S. Szymański

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeSivasspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

24Total Shots6

3.26Expected Goals (xG)0.96

8Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots6

8On Target1

12Off Target3

4Blocked2

14Inside Box3

10Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

447Total Passes367

378Accurate Passes300

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.97Goals Prevented-0.97

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards6

2Offsides3