Sirius 2–1 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

J. Persson 47'

T. Anker 45'

V. Lind 68'

1/29/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sirius56%

×Draw23%

IF Brommapojkarna21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.05

Sirius

1.85

IF Brommapojkarna

1.05

Sirius creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

0.67

1.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sirius

1.71

IF Brommapojkarna

0.67

allows per match

Sirius

1.43

IF Brommapojkarna

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

79%

Sirius or IF Brommapojkarna

77%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

44%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

32%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

84%

Sirius 2+ goals

55%

Sirius 3+ goals

28%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

65%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

28%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

72%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.67 + Sirius defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sirius scores more

56%

level

23%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

21%

Sirius at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

45'

T. Anker

46'

E. Bjorkander← H. Karlsson

46'

O. Zanden← C. Antonelius

46'

S. Ngouali← M. Vetkal

46'

C. Nilden← A. Lohake

46'

D. Irandust← A. Kurochkin

46'

L. Arrhov← L. Krasniqi

46'

46'

47'

68'

71'

90+2'

Sirius

IF

25

Blazevic

21

Timossi

28

Cotton

2

▼

Karlsson

37

▼

Antoneliu

20

▼

Vetkal

18

▼

Lohake

17

▼

Kurochkin

29

▼

Krasniqi

34

▼

Oppong

14

▼

1

38

5

4

⚽

23

8

18

14

17

19

7

⚽

Persson

Manager: Andreas Engelmark

Sirius substitutes

11Olsson15Jamshidi22Gomes26Andersson27Svensson29Hurtig34Celic37Blanco

Manager: Ulf Kristiansson

46'▲E. Bjorkander←▼H. Karlsson

46'▲O. Zanden←▼C. Antonelius

46'▲S. Ngouali←▼M. Vetkal

46'▲C. Nilden←▼A. Lohake

46'▲D. Irandust←▼A. Kurochkin

46'▲L. Arrhov←▼L. Krasniqi

46'▲V. Lind←▼S. Oppong

46'▲E. Alladoh←▼K. Sever

IF Brommapojkarna substitutes

40Cavallius4Bjorkander6Zanden5Ngouali12Nilden19Irandust22Arrhov7Lind23Alladoh