IF Brommapojkarna 1–2 Sirius: Result & Stats

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sirius

A. Troelsen 47'

R. Ure 40'

I. Bjerkebo 18'

7/12/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 12Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna33%

×Draw22%

Sirius45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchSirius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.90

IF Brommapojkarna

1.60

Sirius

1.90

Sirius creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.30

creates per match

1.83

1.96

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.30

Sirius

1.83

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.96

Sirius

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Sirius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

55%

IF Brommapojkarna or Sirius

78%

Draw or Sirius

67%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

16%

Sirius wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

80%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

47%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

22%

Sirius 1+ goals

85%

Sirius 2+ goals

56%

Sirius 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

42%

Sirius (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.30 + Sirius defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sirius attack 1.83 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

33%

level

22%

Sirius scores more

45%

Sirius at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Andreas Troelsen

IF Brommapojkarna · D

8.2

Match Events

18'

I. Bjerkebo

40'

R. Ure↳ O. Krusnell

47'

A. Troelsen↳ M. Hansen

61'

C. Nilden← V. Svensson

64'

K. Barslund← M. Derbali

73'

M. Heier

80'

M. Nartey← M. Heier

84'

J. Uneken← O. Adindu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFSirius

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots12

5Corners7

8Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target6

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

3Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

654Total Passes521

591Accurate Passes455

90%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls18

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1