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Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna — Allsvenskan 2026

Sirius
Sirius
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
Y. Salech 65'
A. Vikman 47'
M. Heier 13'
N. Vasić 77'
W. Odefalk 25'
9/15/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sirius49%
×Draw23%
IF Brommapojkarna28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.83
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33

Sirius creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sirius
2.29
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42

allows per match

Sirius
1.25
IF Brommapojkarna
1.38

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
72%
Sirius or IF Brommapojkarna
77%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
51%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
27%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
84%
Sirius 2+ goals
54%
Sirius 3+ goals
28%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
74%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
38%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
64%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.29 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.83

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.42 + Sirius defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sirius scores more
49%
level
23%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
28%

Sirius at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
A. VikmanSiriusSirius · M
8.0

Match Events

13'
M. Heier↳ M. Lindberg
25'
W. Odefalk
41'
Malcolm Jeng
47'
A. Vikman↳ M. Jeng
62'
Daleho Irandust← F. Christensen
65'
Y. Salech↳ L. Walta
71'
André Calisir
73'
N. Milleskog← J. Persson
75'
A. Abrahamsson← A. Calisir
75'
H. Karlsson← E. Björkander
75'
T. Bergvall← A. Timossi Andersson
77'
N. Vasić↳ A. Jakobsen
84'
P. Nwadike← M. Jeng
90'
P. Pichkah← K. Barslund

Possession

59%Sirius

Shots

22Sirius

Pass accuracy

53%Sirius

Statistics

SiriusIF
Overview
59%Possession41%
22Total Shots8
1.58Expected Goals (xG)0.99
5Corners8
16Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots8
9On Target2
4Off Target3
9Blocked3
12Inside Box6
10Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
539Total Passes353
478Accurate Passes278
89%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna

Sirius beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 in Allsvenskan on September 15, 2024.

Goals: M. Heier (13'), W. Odefalk (25'), A. Vikman (47'), Y. Salech (65'), N. Vasić (77').

Sirius controlled possession (59%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.