Sirius 2–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Degerfors IF

I. Bjerkebo 60'

O. Adindu 5'

S. Ohlsson 67'

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sirius49%

×Draw23%

Degerfors IF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.40

Sirius

1.88

Degerfors IF

1.40

Sirius creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

2.08

creates per match

1.33

1.46

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sirius

2.08

Degerfors IF

1.33

allows per match

Sirius

1.46

Degerfors IF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

71%

Sirius or Degerfors IF

77%

Draw or Degerfors IF

51%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

27%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

85%

Sirius 2+ goals

56%

Sirius 3+ goals

29%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

75%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

41%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

63%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.08 + Degerfors IF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Degerfors IF attack 1.33 + Sirius defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sirius scores more

49%

level

23%

Degerfors IF scores more

29%

Sirius at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

O. Adindu

46'

I. Bjerkebo← A. Ljungberg

57'

60'

I. Bjerkebo

67'

S. Ohlsson

83'

Sirius

Degerfors

25

Forsell

6

Sundgren

7

⚽

16

39

8

13

19

17

27

30

34

20

5

27

33

26

6

8

25

⚽

Adindu

23

Neat

36

▼

Ljungberg

Manager: Andreas Engelmark

46'▲I. Bjerkebo←▼A. Ljungberg

Sirius substitutes

39Elbahlouli40Strindlund41Munaser43Gomes1Diawara12Hook35Eld3Milovanov22Krusnell24Svensson38Adeboyejo17Jonsson9Ure11Bjerkebo

Manager: William Lundin

Degerfors IF substitutes

Karlsson2DiabyKarlsson12Lindell15MoroGronborg24HedenJornelid29TigerholmUllmanBerissonCederholm9Flodkvist