Sirius 1–3 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Degerfors IF

L. Walta 19' (pen)

D. Vukojevic 90'

P. Ndinga 90'

M. Rafferty 58'

9/21/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 24Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Sirius52%

×Draw22%

Degerfors IF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.27

Sirius

1.90

Degerfors IF

1.27

Sirius creates 50% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.97

creates per match

1.30

1.25

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sirius

1.97

Degerfors IF

1.30

allows per match

Sirius

1.25

Degerfors IF

1.83

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Sirius+0.47scores more

Degerfors IF+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

74%

Sirius or Degerfors IF

78%

Draw or Degerfors IF

48%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

30%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

85%

Sirius 2+ goals

56%

Sirius 3+ goals

29%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

72%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

36%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

67%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.25 · 25 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.97 + Degerfors IF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.90

Degerfors IF attack 1.30 + Sirius defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sirius scores more

52%

level

22%

Degerfors IF scores more

26%

Sirius at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

L. Walta

Sirius · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

L. WaltaPenalty

39'

Marcus Lindberg

41'

Simon Sandberg

41'

Santeri Haarala

55'

N. Moro← J. Pikkarainen

55'

E. Barsoum← K. Karlsson

58'

M. Rafferty

65'

V. Svensson← M. Lindberg

65'

S. Ohlsson← R. Omorowa

76'

B. Milovanov← S. Sandberg

76'

N. Milleskog← R. Ure

81'

D. Vukojevic← S. Haarala

90'

D. Vukojevic↳ L. Hien

90'

P. Ndinga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiriusDegerfors

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots10

1.64Expected Goals (xG)0.68

6Corners0

16Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target5

4Off Target1

2Blocked4

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

487Total Passes431

411Accurate Passes344

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Allsvenskan: Sirius 1–3 Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Sirius 3-1 in Allsvenskan on September 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Walta (19' pen), M. Rafferty (58'), D. Vukojevic (90'), P. Ndinga (90').

Sirius controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.

Sirius vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: Sirius 1–3 Degerfors IF