Sirius 3–2 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Degerfors IF

H. Sjögrell 90+9'

W. Abou Ali 90+5', 90+1'

D. Campos 58'

R. Örqvist 45+3'

10/1/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 25Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Sirius51%

×Draw23%

Degerfors IF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.31

Sirius

1.89

Degerfors IF

1.31

Sirius creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.94

creates per match

1.30

1.32

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sirius

1.94

Degerfors IF

1.30

allows per match

Sirius

1.32

Degerfors IF

1.83

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Sirius+0.52scores more

Degerfors IF+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

73%

Sirius or Degerfors IF

77%

Draw or Degerfors IF

49%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

29%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

85%

Sirius 2+ goals

56%

Sirius 3+ goals

29%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

73%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

38%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

66%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 26 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.94 + Degerfors IF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.89

Degerfors IF attack 1.30 + Sirius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sirius scores more

51%

level

23%

Degerfors IF scores more

27%

Sirius at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

W. Abou Ali

Sirius · F

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Abdelkarim Chaouche

45+3'

R. Örqvist

58'

D. Campos↳ S. Ohlsson

60'

André Al Sanati← A. Wikman

61'

A. Bjarnason← M. Jeng

72'

Pashang Abdulla← P. Gwargis

72'

J. Mårtensson← C. Gravius

78'

H. Sjögrell← D. Widgren

78'

H. Ibrahim← J. Persson

82'

89'

90+6'

90'

90+4'

90+1'

W. Abou Ali↳ A. Bjarnason

90+5'

W. Abou Ali↳ H. Sjögrell

90+9'

H. Sjögrell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiriusDegerfors

Overview

59%Possession41%

22Total Shots14

2.59Expected Goals (xG)1.72

10Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots14

9On Target4

4Off Target7

9Blocked3

15Inside Box7

7Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

466Total Passes324

383Accurate Passes240

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Sirius 3–2 Degerfors IF

Sirius beat Degerfors IF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on October 1, 2023.

Goals: R. Örqvist (45+3'), D. Campos (58'), W. Abou Ali (90+1', 90+5'), H. Sjögrell (90+9').

Sirius controlled possession (59%) and registered 22 shots to 14.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.

Sirius vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: Sirius 3–2 Degerfors IF