Sirius 3–1 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

AIK Stockholm

I. Bjerkebo 65'

R. Ure 34'

D. Widgren 7'

J. Hove 57'

6/1/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 12Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Sirius45%

×Draw25%

AIK Stockholm30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.19

Sirius

1.52

AIK Stockholm

1.19

Sirius creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

1.94

creates per match

1.05

1.32

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sirius

1.94

AIK Stockholm

1.05

allows per match

Sirius

1.32

AIK Stockholm

1.09

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Sirius+0.52scores more

AIK Stockholm+0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

70%

Sirius or AIK Stockholm

75%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

55%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

22%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

78%

Sirius 2+ goals

45%

Sirius 3+ goals

20%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

70%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

33%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

60%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 26 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.94 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.52

AIK Stockholm attack 1.05 + Sirius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sirius scores more

45%

level

25%

AIK Stockholm scores more

30%

Sirius at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Lindberg

Sirius · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

D. Widgren

34'

R. Ure↳ I. Bjerkebo

36'

B. Tiedemann← F. Benkovic

36'

V. Andersson← K. Karlsson

45+3'

Dino Beširović

46'

A. Ali← T. Isherwood

52'

Jakob Voelkerling Persson

54'

Mads Thychosen

57'

J. Hove

58'

B. Milovanov← J. Voelkerling

65'

I. Bjerkebo↳ M. Lindberg

74'

A. Kakoullis← J. Guidetti

74'

A. Fesshaie← J. Hove

75'

V. Svensson← I. Bjerkebo

89'

Bogdan Milovanov

89'

Sotirios Papagiannopoulos

90+5'

I. Hook← A. Ljungberg

90+5'

A. Vikman← R. Ure

90+5'

V. Ekstrom← D. Widgren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SiriusAIK

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots13

1.08Expected Goals (xG)2.06

1Corners9

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

4On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked4

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

335Total Passes492

243Accurate Passes384

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1