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AIK Stockholm vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sirius
Sirius
B. Celina 90+6'
Y. Salech 63', 53'
N. Milleskog 25'
5/11/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 8Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

AIK Stockholm47%
×Draw24%
Sirius29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.63
Sirius
1.23

AIK Stockholm creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.57
Sirius
1.32

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.13
Sirius
1.68

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more
Sirius+0.20scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
71%
AIK Stockholm or Sirius
76%
Draw or Sirius
53%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
24%
Sirius wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
80%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
48%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
22%
Sirius 1+ goals
71%
Sirius 2+ goals
35%
Sirius 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
62%
Sirius (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.68 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + Sirius defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sirius attack 1.32 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
47%
level
24%
Sirius scores more
29%

AIK Stockholm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Y. SalechSiriusSirius · F
8.2

Match Events

25'
N. Milleskog↳ Y. Salech
53'
Y. Salech↳ M. Heier
61'
P. Nwadike← M. Jeng
63'
Y. Salech
66'
V. Andersson← D. Beširović
67'
E. Gono← I. Coulibaly
71'
M. Lindberg← M. Heier
72'
A. Murbeck← H. Sjögrell
85'
T. Ayari← M. Thychosen
86'
Lamine Dabo← A. Salétros
90+1'
Lamine Dabo
90+5'
Jakob Voelkerling Persson
90'
F. Olsson← L. Walta
90'
M. Martin← N. Milleskog
90+6'
B. Celina

Possession

62%AIK

Shots

23AIK

Pass accuracy

54%AIK

Statistics

AIKSirius
Overview
62%Possession38%
23Total Shots9
11Corners2
10Fouls9
Shots
23Total Shots9
5On Target5
10Off Target2
8Blocked2
14Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
513Total Passes326
451Accurate Passes247
88%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius

Sirius beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 in Allsvenskan on May 11, 2024.

Goals: N. Milleskog (25'), Y. Salech (53', 63'), B. Celina (90+6').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (62%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.