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AIK Stockholm vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sirius
Sirius
A. Ali 62'
E. Flataker 59'
K. Nordfeldt 39' (OG)
8/31/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AIK Stockholm46%
×Draw25%
Sirius29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.60
Sirius
1.23

AIK Stockholm creates 30% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.57
Sirius
1.34

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.13
Sirius
1.62

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more
Sirius+0.21scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
71%
AIK Stockholm or Sirius
75%
Draw or Sirius
54%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
24%
Sirius wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
80%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
47%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
22%
Sirius 1+ goals
71%
Sirius 2+ goals
35%
Sirius 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
61%
Sirius (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + Sirius defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sirius attack 1.34 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
46%
level
25%
Sirius scores more
29%

AIK Stockholm at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. SaletrosAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · M
7.9

Match Events

16'
Anton Salétros
39'
K. NordfeldtOwn goal
46'
Mads Thychosen
59'
E. Flataker↳ A. Saletros
60'
A. Ali← T. Ayari
60'
D. Besirovic← A. Csongvai
62'
A. Ali
72'
N. Milleskog← I. Bjerkebo
72'
V. Svensson← M. Lindberg
74'
K. Filling← E. Flataker
74'
Y. Geiger← B. Celina
83'
A. Ljungberg← M. Heier
89'
H. Sjogrell← S. Sandberg

Possession

39%AIK

Shots

12AIK

Pass accuracy

46%AIK

Statistics

AIKSirius
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots21
7Corners4
12Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots21
6On Target2
5Off Target13
1Blocked6
5Inside Box14
7Outside Box7
Passing
39%Possession61%
343Total Passes546
241Accurate Passes454
70%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius

AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 31, 2025.

Goals: K. Nordfeldt (39' o.g.), E. Flataker (59'), A. Ali (62').

Sirius controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.