Sîngerei 1–3 Floreşti: Result & Stats | League #395

Sîngerei

FT

1 – 3

Floreşti

9/18/2019

League #395 · Round 16Stadionul Sîngerei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sîngerei27%

×Draw16%

Floreşti57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SîngereiExpected goals in this matchFloreşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

3.83

Sîngerei

2.67

Floreşti

3.83

Floreşti creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

3.33

creates per match

4.67

3.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sîngerei

3.33

Floreşti

4.67

allows per match

Sîngerei

3.00

Floreşti

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sîngerei+0.00on par

Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sîngerei ↓

Floreşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–00%

1–12%

1–23%

1–34%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–45%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–23%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

87%13%4.5

75%25%

Double chance

Sîngerei or draw

43%

Sîngerei or Floreşti

84%

Draw or Floreşti

73%

Winning margin

Sîngerei wins by 2+

14%

Floreşti wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Sîngerei 1+ goals

93%

Sîngerei 2+ goals

74%

Sîngerei 3+ goals

49%

Floreşti 1+ goals

98%

Floreşti 2+ goals

88%

Floreşti 3+ goals

71%

Draw no bet

Sîngerei (draw refunded)

32%

Floreşti (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

89%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sîngerei at home — creates 3.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Floreşti away — creates 4.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sîngerei attack 3.33 + Floreşti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Floreşti attack 4.67 + Sîngerei defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sîngerei scores more

27%

level

16%

Floreşti scores more

57%

Floreşti at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff