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Floreşti vs Sîngerei — Cupa 2020

Floreşti
Floreştiadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sîngerei
Sîngerei
A. Pistol 21' (OG)
I. Amobi 15'
I. Danilov 8'
V. Corcodel 90+1'
10/27/2021CupaCupa · Round of 16Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Floreşti57%
×Draw18%
Sîngerei24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreşti
2.77
Sîngerei
1.80

Floreşti creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Floreşti
3.33
Sîngerei
1.60

allows per match

Floreşti
2.00
Sîngerei
2.20

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par
Sîngerei+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Sîngerei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw
76%
Floreşti or Sîngerei
82%
Draw or Sîngerei
43%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+
38%
Sîngerei wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals
94%
Floreşti 2+ goals
76%
Floreşti 3+ goals
51%
Sîngerei 1+ goals
83%
Sîngerei 2+ goals
54%
Sîngerei 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)
70%
Sîngerei (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Sîngerei away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 3.33 + Sîngerei defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.77

Sîngerei attack 1.60 + Floreşti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Floreşti scores more
57%
level
18%
Sîngerei scores more
24%

Floreşti at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. Danilov
15'
I. Amobi
21'
A. PistolOwn goal
90+1'
V. Corcodel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Floreşti 3–1 Sîngerei

Floreşti beat Sîngerei 3-1 in Cupa on October 27, 2021.

Goals: I. Danilov (8'), I. Amobi (15'), A. Pistol (21' o.g.), V. Corcodel (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Tighina.