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Floreşti vs Sîngerei — League #395 2026

Floreşti
Floreşti
FT
5 – 1
Sîngerei
Sîngerei
5/11/2019League #395League #395 · Round 4Stadionul Izvoare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Floreşti72%
×Draw15%
Sîngerei13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreşti
3.08
Sîngerei
1.29

Floreşti creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Floreşti
2.50
Sîngerei
1.33

allows per match

Floreşti
1.25
Sîngerei
3.67

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par
Sîngerei+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Sîngerei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw
87%
Floreşti or Sîngerei
85%
Draw or Sîngerei
28%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+
52%
Sîngerei wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals
95%
Floreşti 2+ goals
81%
Floreşti 3+ goals
58%
Sîngerei 1+ goals
72%
Sîngerei 2+ goals
37%
Sîngerei 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)
84%
Sîngerei (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sîngerei away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 2.50 + Sîngerei defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Sîngerei attack 1.33 + Floreşti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Floreşti scores more
72%
level
15%
Sîngerei scores more
13%

Floreşti at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Floreşti vs Sîngerei

Floreşti beat Sîngerei 5-1 in League #395 on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Izvoare in Izvoare.