Silkeborg 4–0 Aalborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Silkeborg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Aalborg

J. Gammelby 33'

T. Adamsen 22'

C. McCowatt 14', 8'

4/16/2025

Superliga · Relegation Round - 4JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Silkeborg52%

×Draw23%

Aalborg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilkeborgExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.26

Silkeborg

1.88

Aalborg

1.26

Silkeborg creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.70

creates per match

0.82

1.70

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Silkeborg

1.70

Aalborg

0.82

allows per match

Silkeborg

1.70

Aalborg

2.05

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Silkeborg-0.14scores less

Aalborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw

74%

Silkeborg or Aalborg

77%

Draw or Aalborg

48%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+

29%

Aalborg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals

85%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

56%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

29%

Aalborg 1+ goals

72%

Aalborg 2+ goals

36%

Aalborg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

67%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.70 · 18 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.05 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.70 + Aalborg defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Aalborg attack 0.82 + Silkeborg defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Silkeborg scores more

52%

level

23%

Aalborg scores more

26%

Silkeborg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. McCowatt

Silkeborg · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

C. McCowatt↳ Y. Bakiz

14'

C. McCowatt↳ A. Klynge

22'

T. Adamsen↳ Y. Bakiz

33'

J. Gammelby↳ M. Larsen

46'

E. Makolli← K. John

46'

T. Hernes← N. Arnórsson

46'

M. Jiménez← K. Davidsen

62'

O. Boesen← M. Larsen

62'

A. Simmelhack← T. Adamsen

74'

A. Jasson← M. Widell

77'

N. Helenius← I. Hansen-Aarøen

81'

J. Nielsen← R. Østrøm

81'

R. Orazov← Y. Bakiz

81'

S. Berger← C. McCowatt

90'

Pelle Mattsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SilkeborgAalborg

Overview

64%Possession36%

10Total Shots6

1.47Expected Goals (xG)0.53

1Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots6

6On Target0

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

813Total Passes454

743Accurate Passes390

91%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1