Aalborg 2–1 Silkeborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Aalborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Silkeborg

M. Højholt 52'

M. Jørgensen 18'

O. Sonne 90'

7/28/2024

Superliga · Round 2Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Aalborg39%

×Draw25%

Silkeborg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalborgExpected goals in this matchSilkeborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.45

Aalborg

1.51

Silkeborg

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

1.28

creates per match

1.46

1.44

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Aalborg

1.28

Silkeborg

1.46

allows per match

Aalborg

1.44

Silkeborg

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par

Silkeborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

Silkeborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw

64%

Aalborg or Silkeborg

75%

Draw or Silkeborg

61%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+

19%

Silkeborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals

78%

Aalborg 2+ goals

44%

Aalborg 3+ goals

19%

Silkeborg 1+ goals

77%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

42%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)

52%

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 98 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.74 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 1.28 + Silkeborg defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

Silkeborg attack 1.46 + Aalborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aalborg scores more

39%

level

25%

Silkeborg scores more

36%

Aalborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Højholt

Aalborg · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

M. Jørgensen↳ M. Widell

23'

M. Larsen← P. Mattsson

46'

A. Jasson← O. Ross

46'

O. Diakhité← N. Arnórsson

46'

R. Orazov← A. Klynge

52'

M. Højholt↳ A. Jasson

68'

M. Nielsen← S. Otoa

68'

M. Jiménez← K. Davidsen

68'

M. Freundlich← J. Andersen

69'

J. Nielsen← T. Adamsen

83'

85'

90+1'

90+6'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalborgSilkeborg

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots18

5Corners11

14Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots18

4On Target6

4Off Target8

3Blocked4

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

468Total Passes485

392Accurate Passes396

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0