Aalborg 2–3 Silkeborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Aalborg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Silkeborg

N. Helenius 61'

R. Østrøm 36' (OG)

T. Adamsen 90+5', 45+5' (pen)

A. Simmelhack 90'

5/18/2025

Superliga · Relegation Round - 9Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Aalborg39%

×Draw25%

Silkeborg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalborgExpected goals in this matchSilkeborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.45

Aalborg

1.51

Silkeborg

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

1.28

creates per match

1.46

1.44

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Aalborg

1.28

Silkeborg

1.46

allows per match

Aalborg

1.44

Silkeborg

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par

Silkeborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

Silkeborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw

64%

Aalborg or Silkeborg

75%

Draw or Silkeborg

61%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+

19%

Silkeborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals

78%

Aalborg 2+ goals

44%

Aalborg 3+ goals

19%

Silkeborg 1+ goals

77%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

42%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)

52%

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 98 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.74 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 1.28 + Silkeborg defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

Silkeborg attack 1.46 + Aalborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aalborg scores more

39%

level

25%

Silkeborg scores more

36%

Aalborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Adamsen

Silkeborg · F

8.5

Match Events

25'

M. Bonde← K. Davidsen

36'

R. ØstrømOwn goal

45+4'

Anders KlyngePenalty confirmed

45+5'

T. AdamsenPenalty

61'

N. Helenius↳ M. Jørgensen

62'

O. Boesen← M. Larsen

66'

O. Ross← N. Helenius

66'

N. Arnórsson← A. Jasson

67'

T. Hernes← M. Bomholt

71'

J. Andersen← A. Klynge

82'

J. Nielsen← A. Poulsen

82'

S. Mikkelsen← M. Freundlich

82'

A. Simmelhack← R. Østrøm

86'

87'

90+2'

90'

90'

A. Simmelhack↳ P. Mattsson

90+5'

T. Adamsen↳ O. Boesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalborgSilkeborg

Overview

37%Possession63%

5Total Shots13

1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.38

1Corners8

6Fouls7

Shots

5Total Shots13

1On Target5

4Off Target5

0Blocked3

4Inside Box6

1Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

414Total Passes726

328Accurate Passes641

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0