Silkeborg 3–1 Aalborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Silkeborg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aalborg

T. Adamsen 90+3'

N. Vallys 60'

M. Ross 43' (OG)

K. Kusk 85'

8/8/2022

Superliga · Round 4JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Silkeborg50%

×Draw23%

Aalborg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilkeborgExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Silkeborg

1.77

Aalborg

1.23

Silkeborg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.53

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Silkeborg

1.57

Aalborg

0.94

allows per match

Silkeborg

1.53

Aalborg

1.98

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Silkeborg-0.15scores less

Aalborg-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw

73%

Silkeborg or Aalborg

77%

Draw or Aalborg

50%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+

27%

Aalborg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals

83%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

53%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

26%

Aalborg 1+ goals

71%

Aalborg 2+ goals

35%

Aalborg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

65%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.53 · 26 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.98 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.57 + Aalborg defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aalborg attack 0.94 + Silkeborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Silkeborg scores more

50%

level

23%

Aalborg scores more

27%

Silkeborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Engel

Silkeborg · D

8.3

Match Events

28'

Lars Kramer

43'

M. RossOwn goal

58'

K. Kusk← L. Andersen

59'

K. Ludewig← K. Pallesen

60'

N. Vallys↳ S. Þórðarson

70'

J. Pedersen← M. Højholt

70'

Pedro Ferreira← I. Fossum

78'

P. Mattsson← M. Brink

79'

A. Oggesen← S. Þórðarson

79'

S. Tengstedt← S. Jørgensen

81'

M. Makarić← A. Ementa

85'

K. Kusk↳ M. Makarić

89'

T. Adamsen← N. Helenius

90+5'

L. Klitten← L. Engel

90+3'

T. Adamsen↳ L. Engel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SilkeborgAalborg

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots9

9Corners5

4Fouls5

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target4

6Off Target1

5Blocked4

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

804Total Passes389

735Accurate Passes329

91%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4