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Sidama Bunna vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
S. Saladin 75'
Y. Bogale 19'
2/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sidama Bunna48%
×Draw25%
Legetafo Legedadi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
1.56
Legetafo Legedadi
1.08

Sidama Bunna creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
74%
Sidama Bunna or Legetafo Legedadi
75%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
52%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
25%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
79%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
46%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
21%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
66%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
29%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
65%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
48%
level
25%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
26%

Sidama Bunna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Y. Bogale
46'
M. Addisu← M. Addisu
60'
M. Tola← M. Tola
65'
A. Arbo
70'
Y. Kano← Y. Kano
75'
S. Saladin
77'
A. Asfaw← A. Asfaw
85'
F. Solomon← T. Taffese
90+2'
T. Ayele

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidama Bunna vs Legetafo Legedadi

Sidama Bunna beat Legetafo Legedadi 2-0 in Premier League on February 18, 2023.

Goals: Y. Bogale (19'), S. Saladin (75').

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.