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Legetafo Legedadi vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
S. Traore 62'
A. Arbo 41'
C. Damtew 20'
M. Mena 86'
Y. Mohammoed 70'
7/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi22%
×Draw24%
Sidama Bunna53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legetafo Legedadi
1.00
Sidama Bunna
1.69

Sidama Bunna creates 69% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 102 away

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi
0.88
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi
2.19
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw
47%
Legetafo Legedadi or Sidama Bunna
76%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
78%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
8%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
63%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
26%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
8%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
82%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
50%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
29%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more
22%
level
24%
Sidama Bunna scores more
53%

Sidama Bunna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
C. Damtew
27'
T. Ayele
41'
A. Arbo
46'
F. Solomon← F. Solomon
46'
B. Shura← B. Shura
46'
A. Asfaw← A. Asfaw
59'
M. Abera← M. Abera
62'
S. Traore
68'
A. Endale← A. Endale
70'
Y. Mohammoed
86'
M. Mena
87'
S. Kidane← S. Kidane
87'
T. Negash
90'
I. Befkadu← I. Befkadu
90'
S. Traore

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legetafo Legedadi 3–2 Sidama Bunna

Legetafo Legedadi beat Sidama Bunna 3-2 in Premier League on July 1, 2023.

Goals: C. Damtew (20'), A. Arbo (41'), S. Traore (62'), Y. Mohammoed (70'), M. Mena (86').

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.