Sidama Bunna 1–5 Legetafo Legedadi: Result & Stats

Sidama Bunna

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Legetafo Legedadi

Y. Bogale 32' (pen)

A. Gebremichael 66'

I. Ouro-Agoro 45+3' (pen), 45+2', 19' (pen)

B. Wolde 10'

10/13/2022

Premier League · Round 3Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sidama Bunna48%

×Draw25%

Legetafo Legedadi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidama BunnaExpected goals in this matchLegetafo Legedadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.08

Sidama Bunna

1.56

Legetafo Legedadi

1.08

Sidama Bunna creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.14

1.02

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sidama Bunna

1.13

Legetafo Legedadi

1.14

allows per match

Sidama Bunna

1.02

Legetafo Legedadi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw

74%

Sidama Bunna or Legetafo Legedadi

75%

Draw or Legetafo Legedadi

52%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+

25%

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals

79%

Sidama Bunna 2+ goals

46%

Sidama Bunna 3+ goals

21%

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

66%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

29%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)

65%

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more

48%

level

25%

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

26%

Sidama Bunna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Wolde

19'

I. Ouro-AgoroPenalty

24'

N. Zeleke

32'

Y. BogalePenalty

45+2'

I. Ouro-Agoro

45+3'

A. Endale

45+3'

I. Ouro-AgoroPenalty

46'

T. Taffese← T. Taffese

50'

I. Ouro-Agoro

53'

A. Gebremichael← A. Gebremichael

58'

F. Solomon← G. Obaje

66'

A. Gebremichael↳ C. Gugsa

73'

H. Gebregziabehare← H. Gebregziabehare

73'

H. Sherefa← H. Sherefa

76'

B. Shura← B. Shura

77'

A. Asfaw← A. Asfaw

80'

Y. Bogale

81'

A. Samuel← A. Samuel

81'

C. Gugsa← A. Gidey

84'

A. Samuel

86'

T. Taffese

90'

A. Gebremichael

90+5'

G. Gatkoch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff