Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 27+ matches
Sichuan Jiuniu35%
Beijing Guoan41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Beijing Guoan creates 11% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sichuan Jiuniu ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 27 matches
Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.38 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45
Beijing Guoan attack 1.54 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Beijing Guoan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Shanghai SIPG
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Shandong LunengBeijing Guoan
Jiangsu Suning
Hebei Zhongji
Shanghai Shenhua
Beijing Renhe
Tianjin Songjiang
Guangzhou R&F
Dalian Aerbin
Henan Jianye
Chongqing Lifan
Tianjin Teda
Changchun Yatai
Guizhou ZhichengIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sichuan Jiuniu host Beijing Guoan on Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 08:00. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Super League: Sichuan Jiuniu 2–1 Beijing Guoan
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 in Super League on October 18, 2025.
Goals: E. Garcia (13'), Wesley Moraes (33'), Zhang Yuning (67').
Beijing Guoan controlled possession (74%) and registered 16 shots to 5.
The match was played at Baoan Stadium in Shenzhen.