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Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2026

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
4/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Beijing Guoan58%
×Draw21%
Sichuan Jiuniu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.00
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.08

Beijing Guoan creates 85% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.04
Sichuan Jiuniu
0.99

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.95

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more
Sichuan Jiuniu-0.41scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
80%
Beijing Guoan or Sichuan Jiuniu
79%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
42%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
35%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
86%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
59%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
32%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
66%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
29%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
74%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.95 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
58%
level
21%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
20%

Beijing Guoan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Guoan 1–2 Sichuan Jiuniu

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 in Super League on April 9, 2024.

The match was played at Workers' Stadium in Beijing.