Beijing Guoan 3–1 Sichuan Jiuniu: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sichuan Jiuniu

Guga 71'

Serginho 44'

Lin Liangming 28'

R. Dugalic 49'

5/10/2025

Super League · Round 12Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Beijing Guoan58%

×Draw21%

Sichuan Jiuniu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchSichuan Jiuniu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.08

Beijing Guoan

2.00

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.08

Beijing Guoan creates 85% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

2.04

creates per match

0.99

1.17

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.04

Sichuan Jiuniu

0.99

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.17

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.95

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.25scores more

Sichuan Jiuniu-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

80%

Beijing Guoan or Sichuan Jiuniu

79%

Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu

42%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

35%

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

86%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

59%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

32%

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

66%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

29%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

74%

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.17 · 31 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.95 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.04 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

58%

level

21%

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

20%

Beijing Guoan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Guga

Beijing Guoan · M

9.3

Match Events

22'

Eden Karzev

28'

Lin Liangming↳ Serginho

44'

Serginho↳ Guga

46'

Zhang Yuning← Zhang Yuan

49'

R. Dugalic↳ E. Kartsev

60'

M. Sarkaria← Ghojaehmet Shahzat

71'

Guga

75'

U. Spajic← Cao Yongjing

75'

Chi Zhongguo← Serginho

76'

Qiao Wang

77'

Zhang Wei← Abduweli Behram

77'

Tiago Leonco← Nan Song

82'

Feng Boxuan← Wang Gang

83'

N. Muhmet← Lin Liangming

87'

W. Jiang← Zhang Xiaobin

88'

H. Shen← Yang Yiming

90+3'

Yujie Zhang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingSichuan

Overview

77%Possession23%

22Total Shots5

1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.33

6Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots5

8On Target2

8Off Target3

6Blocked0

14Inside Box2

8Outside Box3

Passing

77%Possession23%

838Total Passes249

773Accurate Passes188

92%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1