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Šiauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen — A Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
9/14/2025A LygaA Lyga · Round 28Siauliai central stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Šiauliai38%
×Draw26%
Hegelmann Litauen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
1.33
Hegelmann Litauen
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 99 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
1.37
Hegelmann Litauen
1.38

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.16
Hegelmann Litauen
1.29

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
65%
Šiauliai or Hegelmann Litauen
74%
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
62%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
17%
Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
74%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
38%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
15%
Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
72%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
36%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
52%
Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.37 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.38 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Šiauliai scores more
38%
level
26%
Hegelmann Litauen scores more
35%

Šiauliai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šiauliai vs Hegelmann Litauen

Hegelmann Litauen beat Šiauliai 1-0 in A Lyga on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Siauliai central stadium.