Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hegelmann Litauen vs Šiauliai — Cup 2020

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauenadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
8/7/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsRaudondvario stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen18%
×Draw20%
Šiauliai62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann Litauen
1.08
Šiauliai
2.17

Šiauliai creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen
1.00
Šiauliai
2.00

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen
2.33
Šiauliai
1.17

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw
38%
Hegelmann Litauen or Šiauliai
80%
Draw or Šiauliai
82%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
7%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
66%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
29%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
10%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
89%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
64%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
23%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.00 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Šiauliai attack 2.00 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more
18%
level
20%
Šiauliai scores more
62%

Šiauliai at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hegelmann Litauen 3–1 Šiauliai

Hegelmann Litauen beat Šiauliai 3-1 in Cup on August 7, 2025.

The match was played at Raudondvario stadionas in Raudondvaris.